Best months to buy gold according to Octa analysts

FinanceFeeds Editorial Team

In this article, Octa expert examines recurring seasonal gold patterns and their influencing factors.

Much like the vibrant blossoms of spring and the bountiful harvests of late summer, the world of gold exhibits recurring seasonal patterns or seasonality trends that influence its market performance. In this exploration, we delve into the profound influence of seasonality and cyclicality on gold prices.

Optimistic Outlook for Gold’s Seasonal Phase

A recurring pattern reveals an exciting seasonally driven period for gold that kicks off towards the end of the year, typically starting in mid-December and extending until the latter half of February. Research by Seasonax, based on a meticulous analysis of 54 years of data, underscores this intriguing phenomenon.

Source: Seasonax


According to the data, the seasonal interim low usually materializes between the 15th and 20th of December, while the seasonal median high is typically reached at the end of February. Although there have been years with no discernible upswings, gold has shown a consistent upward trajectory for 14 out of the last 20 years during this same two-and-a-half-month span. This translates to a compelling 70% probability of experiencing a price surge during this period. Average gains during this phase have ranged from 8.5% to an impressive 18%, with comparatively minor losses varying from -1.6% to -3.3%, rendering it a profitable season each year since 2013. The sway of cultural influences and investor sentiment reinforces gold’s upward trend during this period.

Cultural Factors Fuel Jewelry Demand in Specific Seasons

Cultural traditions in India dictate that gold and gold jewellery be part of dowries, contributing to a surge in demand. With approximately 10 million weddings celebrated in India annually, the wedding season spans from October to March, aligning with milder temperatures and weekends marked by religious festivals. This results in the jewellery industry meeting nearly the entire annual gold demand within a relatively short timeframe.

“According to Gold Demand Trends Q2 2023 by the World Gold Council, India emerged as the world’s largest consumer of gold in 2022, purchasing 601 tonnes of gold, representing 28% of global jewellery consumption, with China closely trailing at 598 tonnes,” highlighted Kar Yong Ang.

China, too, mirrors this trend in gold jewellery demand.

Investor Sentiment Post U.S. FOMC Meeting in December

Before the December meeting of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Commitments of Traders (COT) bulletins indicated that most investors held a pessimistic stance on gold, with 87% of futures traders assuming neutral or bearish positions. Notably, the seasonal interim low coincided with the period between December 15th and 20th, aligning with the date of the year’s final FOMC meeting.

Gold ETF flows form yet another component that synchronizes seamlessly with the aforementioned indicators.

Source: World Gold Council


Gold Fund Positioning in Q1

According to the World Gold Council, in 11 out of the last 15 years, funds increased their positions in the first quarter. They typically acquire gold in January, February, and March.

In Conclusion: Leveraging Gold’s Seasonal Insights

Seasonality plays a pivotal role in shaping gold prices, with a convincing 75-80% correlation in most cases. Consequently, both investors and traders utilize these seasonal trends extensively in their decision-making processes. However, it is essential to remember that while seasonality can be a valuable indicator, it should not be the sole basis for determining gold buying or selling decisions.

About Octa:

Octa, an international broker established in 2011, offers commission-free access to global financial markets and a range of services that cater to clients in 180 countries, boasting over 42 million trading accounts. Their array of free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools empowers clients to achieve their investment goals.

In addition to their brokerage services, Octa actively participates in a wide-reaching network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, supporting causes such as enhancing educational infrastructure and providing rapid relief to local communities in need.

Octa’s commitment to excellence has garnered more than 60 awards, including the prestigious ‘Best Educational Broker 2023’ accolade from the Global Forex Awards and the ‘Best Global Broker Asia 2022’ award by the International Business Magazine.

Read this next

Digital Assets

Binance to phase out BUSD support in two weeks

Binance has announced its plans to gradually phase out support for its native stablecoin, BUSD (Binance USD) by December 15, 2023. This move comes after Paxos, the issuer of BUSD, decided to stop minting new tokens.


Binance Labs invests $3.15M in Open Campus to advance Web3 education

Binance Labs, the venture capital arm of the cryptocurrency giant Binance, has invested $3.15 million in Web3 education platform Open Campus.

Institutional FX

Brighty App unveils EU B2B payment platform amidst exploding market

Brighty App is set to launch its European B2B platform, Brighty Business, this month. This platform is geared towards improving how businesses handle their financial operations, especially in the digital banking and cryptocurrency domains.

Digital Assets

Celsius’ withdrawal process slowed by overwhelming demand

Bankrupt crypto lender Celsius is taking steps to allow certain customers to withdraw their funds. However, some users have reported difficulties in logging in to process their withdrawals, as indicated by posts on various social media platforms.

Digital Assets

Cristiano Ronaldo hit with $1 billion lawsuit over Binance NFTs

Cristiano Ronaldo, the renowned footballer, is facing a class-action lawsuit in the United States over his promotion of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.

Digital Assets

Zipmex creditors offered 3.35 cents on the dollar payout

Zipmex, a Thai crypto exchange grappling with financial difficulties, has proposed a restructuring plan to repay its creditors.

Digital Assets

FSB warns of risks posed by multifunction crypto-asset intermediaries

The report on Multifunction Crypto-Asset Intermediaries (MCIs) provides an in-depth analysis of these entities which combine various crypto-asset services and products, typically centering around a trading platform. These services can include proprietary trading, investment functions, issuance, promotion, and distribution of crypto-assets, including stablecoins.

Retail FX

Indonesia launches PosPay Gold: a Sharia-compliant physical gold trading app powered by Kinesis

“Partnerships like the just realized POSPay Gold in Indonesia will revolutionize the global monetary system and economy and will enable citizens to have access to trading in gold while being sharia-compliant and having the freedom to realize their everyday financial needs.”

Retail FX

Webull acquires Flink to enter Mexican market ahead of further LATAM expansion

“Given our success in the United States and the establishment of our global headquarters in St. Petersburg, Florida, the Mexican market is a natural next step in our efforts to democratize finance for investors across the world. We anticipate using Mexico as a springboard into greater Latin and South America, where we believe there is a strong desire among retail investors to access global markets.”