Experts are warning that the long-awaited “altseason,” when alternative currencies rise alongside Bitcoin, might not occur in 2026. Instead, only well-known, high-quality initiatives are likely to attract significant investment, leaving many lesser-known tokens behind.
Selective Liquidity to Dominate Next Year
Jeff Ko, the head analyst at CoinEx Research, has given a cautious forecast for the coming year. He says that the way the market works would favour careful decision-making over general excitement.
Ko told Cointelegraph, “Retail investors who think that a rising tide will lift all boats will be let down.” He said, “There won’t be a traditional altseason; instead, liquidity will be very picky and only go to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.”
Ko noted that this selectivity stems from “modest global liquidity tailwinds in 2026,” but differing policies across central banks will offset these. He said that Bitcoin‘s historical link to the expansion of the M2 money supply has weakened since the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2024.
This means Bitcoin is less sensitive to broader economic changes. CoinEx’s base case scenario, on the other hand, has Bitcoin rising to $180,000 by the end of 2026. This shows that people are still hopeful about the leading cryptocurrency, but not too much.
Ko’s ideas show that the industry is growing, and real-world use and acceptance are becoming important factors that set it apart. Blue-chip cryptocurrencies, which are sometimes compared to well-known stocks like those in the S&P 500, are likely to attract the most investor attention during periods of economic uncertainty.
Long Bear Market and Future Highs
Not all predictions agree with this mostly bullish short-term picture of Bitcoin. Peter Brandt, a veteran futures trader, gave a longer timescale and said that the present market cycle is not over yet. Brandt noted that Bitcoin has gone through five parabolic gains on a logarithmic scale over the past 15 years, each followed by a drop of at least 80%. He said, “This cycle isn’t over yet.”
Brandt thought the next bull market high might occur in September 2029, based on the bottom of this cycle.
According to the four-year Bitcoin cycle, peaks usually happen roughly a year after halvings. The next one is set for around April 2028. Brandt did say, though, that an 80% drop, which has happened before, might bring Bitcoin’s value down below $25,000 before it starts to go back up.
Past Patterns and Present Problems
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin has done well in the fourth quarter in the past. In fact, eight of the last 12 Q4 periods saw the asset’s most significant gains, and only one had single-digit returns. But this quarter has been different; Bitcoin is down more than 22%, making it the second-worst Q4 on record.
Milk Road, a macro investment platform, saw this drop as a positive, saying it “usually means the market has flushed a lot of excess risk and weak positioning.” The feed went on to say, “So for 2026, it doesn’t automatically mean things will get better, but historically, cycles that end with a big reset tend to have better conditions for building strength.”
Bitcoin is currently worth about $88,000, which is 30% less than its all-time high in October. Ko, Brandt, and others’ insights show that the market is changing. Investors who are patient and choose wisely may be able to profit in the unpredictable crypto market.
With different ideas about deadlines and recoveries, 2026 could be a key year in telling which projects will last and which ones will not.
