This preview of weekly data looks at USOIL and XAUUSD where economic data coming up later this week are the main market drivers for the near short-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: Chinese manufacturing data, EU and US GDP, BoJ interest rate decision, US manufacturing, EU flash inflation, US job report
Tuesday:
- US job openings is expected to be released at 14:00 GMT. The expectations are for a decline in the figure of around 68,000 jobs but this might not have a significant effect on the dollar since the data is for the month of March and also all eyes will be focusing on the job report later this week for a more accurate conclusion on the labor market.
Wednesday:
- NBS manufacturing PMI at 01:30 AM GMT where the expectations are for a decrease reaching 49.9 points. The NBS is larger than the Caixin (to be released later this day) and is focusing more on larger state-owned firms. If the expectations are correct then it would mean that the state-owned firms might be performing worse but have yet to reach the 50 point level, indicating that the manufacturing sector of the NBS survey might still be shrinking and probably might have some effect on production-related products like oil, natural gas, silver etc.
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 01:45 AM GMT. The figure for the month of April is expected to decrease by 1.3 points, reaching 49.9. Caixin PMI is more focused on the export sector and small and midsize enterprises (SMEs) and a reading of anything below the 50 point mark would indicate that these companies have yet to recover fully which could result in affecting the prices of various manufacturing related instruments.
- Flash European GDP growth at 09:00 AM GMT where both the quarterly and the annualized figures are expected to remain stable at 0.2% and 1.2% respectively. In the event of any surprise difference on the actual publication, it might create some volatility on the Euro pairs around the time of the release.
- US GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025 is expected to decline to 0.4% against the previous figure of 2.4%. If these rather pessimistic expectations are met, then it might create some minor losses for the Dollar while supporting many of its instruments traded against it.
- US core PCE index for the month of March is expected to decrease to 0.1% against the previous 0.4%. If these figures are broadly accurate, then it might create some pressure for the Dollar, whereas in the event of a harder PCE reading, the Dollar might strengthen.
Thursday:
- Bank of Japan Interest rate decision at 03:00 AM GMT. The market consensus is that the rates will remain static at 0.5% while in the unlikely scenario of any shift away from this figure will most certainly create volatility on the yen pairs.
- US manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. The consensus is for a decrease from 49 to 47.9 points. If these expectations are correct, then it would indicate that the manufacturing sector in the States is contracting and probably affect the Dollar negatively in the short term.
Friday:
- European flash inflation rate at 09:00 AM GMT where the figure for the month of April is expected to drop from 2.2% to 2%. This might not have a significant effect on the Euro first because of the very minor change and also because it is flash data, meaning that it’s not the final official rate.
- US Job report at 12:30 GMT where the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are going to be published. The expectations for the NFP is for a decline to reach 130,000 against the previous recording of 228,000. If these expectations are correct, we might see that the dollar could move down in various pairs in the aftermath of the release. On the other hand, the unemployment rate is expected to remain static at 4.2%.
Crude oil futures edged higher on Monday despite US-China trade tensions. WTI June futures rose 0.33% to $63.23. Hopes of easing tensions were dampened after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was unaware of any recent talks between President Trump and President Xi. Markets are also awaiting the OPEC+ meeting, where another production increase may be decided. Meanwhile, Trump criticized Russia over attacks on Ukraine, and US officials hinted they may pull back from peace efforts, adding to oil market uncertainty given Russia’s key role in global supply.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has been trading in a sideway bound movement in the past week between $62 and $64. This price range is made up of the area between 38.2% and the 50% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level. The moving averages are confirming the overall bearish movement while the Bollinger bands have contracted quite massively showing that volatility might be drying up in the crude oil market and might need a new catalyst to see volume picking up. The Stochastic oscillator is near the extreme overbought level, hinting that there might be a bearish correction in the near short term. All of the indications for this week are favoring a possible continuation of the sideway movement in the upcoming days unless any major deviations from the expectations on the economic calendar especially for the US dollar happen.
Gold prices fell on Monday as easing US-China trade tensions improved investor sentiment and weakened demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Spot gold dropped 0.8% to $3,292.11 an ounce, retreating from a record high of $3,500 reached on April 22. A stronger dollar also pressured gold, making it more expensive for foreign buyers. Optimism grew after comments from the White House suggested a possible deal with China, although US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later did not confirm active negotiations. Gold, which typically benefits from economic and political uncertainty, faced additional headwinds as global discussions pointed to continued trade tensions despite signals of de-escalation.
From a technical point of view, the price of gold has pulled back from the all time high around $3,500 and has found sufficient support around the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level. This resulted in the Stochastic oscillator being pushed back to neutral levels while the 50-day moving average is well above the 100-day moving average, validating that the overall bullish trend is still valid despite the recent bearish correction. If the current area of support holds strong, then it is possible that there might be a retest of the recent all-time high in the near short term again.
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