Peter Brandt on Bitcoin: 50-50 chance of $1MM or ZERO

Rick Steves

In the face of the never-ending enthusiasm in the market regarding Bitcoin, Peter Brandt accepts either fate: $1 million or zero. This analysis implies Bitcoin is a completely speculative asset with absolutely no intrinsic value. 

Peter Brandt

Peter Brandt, the CEO of Futures/FX trading firm Factor LLC, has tweeted “I think there is a 50% chance it will go to $1MM and a 50% chance it will go to Zero” in Bitcoin.

In 2011, Mr. Brandt was named among the 30 most influential persons in the world of finance by Barry Ritholtz’ website. With nearly 500,000 followers, he regularly tweets “about stuff I’ve learned the hard way”.

Bitcoin’s bullish run of the last few months has triggered new moves in Wall Street and Main Street. Goldman Sachs is relaunching its crypto trading desk and will set up a custody offering. CME Group has launched its Ether futures contract. Canada’s third Bitcoin ETF is about to get listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE).

In the face of the never-ending enthusiasm in the market regarding Bitcoin, Peter Brandt accepts either fate: $1 million or zero. This analysis implies Bitcoin is a completely speculative asset with absolutely no intrinsic value.

This, however, didn’t stop the 46-year veteran trader from entering the Bitcoin market in 2016. “Full disclosure -I am NOT a $BTC maximalist -In 46 yrs trading, I’ve never seen a more exciting market with a similar narrative. My largest current single non-real estate holding is Bitcoin. Yet, for me, BTC is just another market to be traded, like Beans or T-Notes or Sugar”, he wrote in another tweet.

“The devaluation of the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar $DX_F has only just begun. This is why Bitcoin $BTC, real estate, U.S. equities, and commodities will continue to trend higher when expressed in $USD fiat terms”, he added in his Twitter account. 

Peter Brandt admitted that the nearly pathological crypto enthusiasm may be a reason to drive away market interest in the number one digital currency. “The single most bearish factor I am presently considering for Bitcoin. Unbridled enthusiasm + FOMO buying usually =s deep and/or long correction Not only is it obnoxious, but it is also stupid If you want the world to take $BTC seriously, then stop acting like children.”

“Either play by the rules or we will shut you down”

While Peter Brandt is happily holding Bitcoin, regulators in the United States have become increasingly hawkish on cryptocurrencies as unregistered trading firms and crypto scams surge with the rising interest in all things crypto.

New York Attorney General Letitia James has recently said: “Too often, greedy industry players take unnecessary risks with investors’ money, but, today, we’re leveling the playing field and issuing alerts to both investors and industry members across the nation. All investors should proceed with extreme caution when investing in virtual currencies. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk, unstable investments that could result in devastating losses just as quickly as they can provide gains”.

“We will not hesitate to take action against anyone who violates the law. Two weeks ago, we filed a lawsuit to shut down Coinseed’s fraudulent operation. Last week, we ended both Bitfinex and Tether’s illegal activities in New York. And now, today, we’re sending a clear message to the entire industry that you either play by the rules or we will shut you down.”

Crypto scammers and fraudsters get indicted

The Department of Justice has recently announced a citizen of Sweden, Roger Nils-Jonas Karlsson (47), pleaded guilty to securities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering charges.

The DOJ indicted Mr. Karlsson of defrauding over 3,500 victims of more than $16 million with a long-running scheme by which Karlsson and his company Eastern Metal Securities (EMS) convinced victims to send funds using a virtual currency exchange.

Karlsson was extradited from Thailand and is facing a maximum sentence of 20 years for the wire fraud and securities fraud charges and another 20 years for the money laundering charge.

John McAfee, again, was indicted for “engaging in a manipulative and deceptive digital asset “pump-and-dump” scheme”. This is the first case brought by the CFTC for a manipulative scheme involving digital assets.

Read this next

Metaverse Gaming NFT

DCentral Miami brings together all of Web3, NFT, DeFi, Metaverse

The world’s biggest Web3 meeting entitled DCENTRAL Miami is set to take place November 28-29, featuring a lineup of some of the biggest and most influential names in the blockchain space.

Digital Assets

Crypto ban expands across UK banks as Starling joins ‎crackdown

UK digital bank Starling has banned ‎all customer payments related to cryptocurrencies, another blow for the crypto traders ‎who recently saw a sizable number of banks deciding not to ‎finance the wobbly asset class.‎


Markets Direct at FIA EXPO 2022: Traders know what they want from brokers

The FIA Expo 2022, one of the most prestigious events within the global derivatives trading industry, took place in Chicago on 14 & 15 November.


FIA Expo 2022: TNS addresses public cloud limitations with hybrid infrastructure

November is the month of the FIA Expo, one of the largest futures and options conferences in the world, bringing together regulators, exchanges, software vendors, and brokers in one place: the Sheraton Grand Chicago Riverwalk. 

Retail FX

Italy’s regulator blacks out Finance CapitalFX, MFCapitalFX

Italy’s Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) has shut down new websites in an ongoing clampdown against firms it accuses of illegally promoting investment products in the country.

Retail FX

Suspected leader of Honk Kong ramp-and-dump scam appears in court

A leader of a sophisticated ramp-and-dump scheme made his first court appearance in a Hong Kong court today, charged with market manipulation and various criminal offences. The case stems from an earlier joint operation of Hong Kong’s financial watchdog, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), and the local police. 

Institutional FX

Cboe’s James Arrante discusses growing demand for fixed income, FX algo

We caught up with James Arrante, senior director of FX & US treasuries product and business management at Cboe Global Markets, to uncover emerging trends in the FX and fixed income markets and learn more about the bourse operator’s recent initiatives.

Retail FX

Eurotrader acquires UK broker Petra Asset Management

Eurotrader Group has formally entered into the UK market with the acquisition of FCA-regulated broker, previously named Petra Asset Management Ltd. The new entity operates under the brand name Eurotrade Capital Ltd.

Inside View, Retail FX

The Game of Chess Continues – OPEC, China and the Oil Market

Over the past decade, the US has been complaining about the amount of power which the BRIC group, and specifically China, has on the global economy. BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China; these were the world’s fastest growing economies. Only in the past 10 months, the US has turned their attention toward OPEC due to the prices of fuel. Nevertheless, China seems to have a strong influence even over the price of crude oil.