A small group of Polymarket’s high-stakes investors, or “whales,” holds over half of the “Yes” shares backing a Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Pseudonymous bettor Domer reported that five major accounts control 50% of the 162 million Trump shares, with one account — dubbed “Le Giga Whale” — holding nearly a third alone. If Trump wins, these top shareholders stand to gain a combined $81 million.
By contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris’s “Yes” shares are more widely distributed, with the top five holders accounting for only 18%. Harris’s largest holder controls just 4.4% of her shares, compared to Trump’s top holder, who holds 29.1%.
The centralized control of Trump shares raised questions about confidence and market impact. Domer suggested that some accounts, potentially controlled by a single wealthy entity, reflect a big belief in a Trump victory. These accounts show continued investment, even as prices rise, likely indicating increasing confidence.
The U.S. election has become a focal point for crypto markets, with the regulatory stance of the next administration impacting sentiment. Polymarket currently shows Trump with a 56.9% chance of winning, while Harris holds 43%. On Kalshi, Trump’s odds stand at 54%, compared to 46% for Harris. Traditional polling paints a tighter race, with The New York Times putting Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%.
Recent swings in Polymarket odds impacted crypto prices, particularly Bitcoin. The volatility in Trump’s odds, coupled with Harris’s lead in some polls, led to profit-taking among Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin saw a big rise in October, reaching $73,600, as analysts speculated on a “Trump pump” tied to his perceived crypto-friendly stance. However, some market watchers argue that the rally may be a hedge against uncertainty, without strong macroeconomic conditions to sustain a new high.
In October, Polymarket identified a French citizen as the individual responsible for $28 million in pro-Trump trading positions.
The decentralized prediction market platform confirmed that the trader, who has a strong background in finance and trading, used four separate accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie — to place the bets.
However, Polymarket representatives stated that their investigation found no evidence of market manipulation. The trader reportedly spread his positions across smaller bets to prevent distorting the market. When contacted, he explained that the bets were based on personal forecast about the election’s outcome.
Polymarket’s election odds, which have increasingly favored former President Donald Trump since early October, are consistent with those on other platforms, the company said. The sharp rise in Trump’s odds followed months of close competition with Vice President Kamala Harris, who maintained a lead earlier in the year.
