Will the US Job figures Shock the Markets? – Guest Editorial

Ramy Abouzaid

ATFX AE Head of Market Research Ramy Abouzaid looks at the stock chart patterns driven by the US job market figures

By Ramy Abouzaid, ATFX (AE) Head of Market Research.

The American economy had recorded a sharp, yet expected, loss in job numbers in March report, as the report witnessed a loss of about 701,000 jobs in March, a figure that we expect to be revised in April’s report showing worst figures than the forecast. The reading in March was much worse than the average market expectation for the US labour market with a loss of around 100,000 jobs.

It should be noted that the loss reported in the monthly jobs report is the deepest since September 2010, but the numbers have not yet reached the losses recorded during the Great depression nor during the financial crisis of 2008, and as is known, the March’s report figures excluded last two weeks of March in which claims for unemployment benefits reached 10 million. Although, If we take a look at the five weeks between the data of March and April reports, we will find that the initial requests for unemployment benefits have increased by more than 26 million.


Based on all announced figures until the moment, it is undoubtedly predicting that the losses of the American labour market in April will be deeper than what was recorded in the 2008 crisis, and we can estimate those losses by about 26 million jobs, which raises the unemployment rate to 20%, while opinion polls show that unemployment for the month of April is around 16% only.

The losses are expected to be particularly concentrated on low-wage employment and laborers working for fewer hours, which will be reflected in the average hourly wages data, with an expected rise of 1.5%. This may cause the average hourly wage to rise on an annual basis to 4.6%, from 3.1% in the previous month.

As for the sectoral impact of the report, it is expected that job losses will rise in all economic sectors without exception, but the losses will be deeper in retails, entertainment and hospitality sectors.

Accordingly, the markets are awaiting in particular the monthly report of the US labour market data, which will give us a more realistic view of the US economy, which will enable the markets to assess this reflection on the quarterly reading of GDP growth in the second quarter.

As for market movements, if the report holds data worse than the average market expectations expected, then it will definitely push the markets to re-evaluate the impact of the current crisis on the economy, and to re-evaluate the impact of the stimulus measures and the economy’s response to these measures – in terms of the time factor – which will put us all facing the ugly truth; that what we have lost since the beginning of this crisis may take a much longer period of time than our expectations in order to put the economy back on track.

The subject matter and the content of this article are solely the views of the author. FinanceFeeds does not bear any legal responsibility for the content of this article and they do not reflect the viewpoint of FinanceFeeds or its editorial staff.

Read this next

Industry News

The B2Broker B2Core REST API Is Now Live

B2Broker has announced the release of its new REST API, which lets customers use B2Broker’s solutions and services for business purposes.

Executive Moves

CME Group taps Paul Woolman to lead Equity Index, Giovanni Vicioso to lead Crypto

“Our equity and cryptocurrency businesses have experienced tremendous growth in recent years, underpinned by strong customer adoption and continued innovation.”


Sumsub launches document-free KYC for users in India, Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia

Sumsub has launched one click-KYC for users in India, Brazil, Nigeria and Indonesia in a move that allows businesses to instantly onboard over 2 billion users without requesting their ID documents.

Digital Assets

Cboe becomes first major global exchange operator on DeFi data platform, Pyth Network

“Our participation in the Pyth network will provide another avenue to broaden customer access to our data, and aligns with our strategy to deliver market data to investors around the globe based on how they want to consume their data, whether through direct connectivity methods, the cloud or the blockchain.”

Industry News

FINRA fines Barclays Capital $2 million for best execution failures for 5 years

FINRA has fined Barclays Capital $2 million for failing to comply with its best execution obligations in connection with its customers’ electronic equity orders between January 2014 and February 2019. 

Digital Assets

SETL helps SWIFT, CSDs and custodians develop common framework for tokenisation systems

London-based enterprise DLT and blockchain company SETL has delivered a pilot project for SWIFT which implemented a common framework linking tokenisation systems between central security depositories (CSDs) and global custodians.

Digital Assets

Crypto volumes hit CHF 87.1 million at Switzerland exchange

Switzerland’s principal exchange has experienced a rebound in trading activities for September 2022, with monthly volumes increasing by more than 20 percent MoM.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin Suisse Vault taps Polkadot governance features

Bitcoin Suisse has added support for Polkadot protocol governance on its proprietary, hyper-secure cold storage solution, the Bitcoin Suisse Vault.

Retail FX

Finalto sweetens offering for African traders with localized FX pairs

Finalto, the financial trading division of Gopher Investments, announced today that it has extended its offering with inclusion of a number of African Pairs to its trading platforms.