What Did Mizuho’s Data Reveal?
Circle’s USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in transaction volume for the first time in several years, according to a research note released Friday by Japanese investment bank Mizuho. The report compared year-to-date stablecoin transaction activity and found that USDC handled roughly $2.2 trillion in adjusted volume, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDT.
Mizuho analysts said the numbers point to a reversal in a long-running pattern that had favored Tether since 2019. “The data shows USDC vs. USDT volumes at 64% market share,” the bank wrote in its note. “This is a reversal in a long-term trend of USDT volumes surpassing USDC in 2019–2025.”
Following the analysis, Mizuho raised its price target for Circle shares from $100 to $120. Circle went public on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025. The company’s stock price showed little reaction immediately after the report was published.
Investor Takeaway
Why Transaction Volume Matters More Than Supply
While Tether remains the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, the gap in usage may be narrowing. According to market data cited in the report, USDT’s circulating supply is around $184 billion, compared with about $79 billion for USDC.
Market capitalization measures how many tokens exist, but transaction volume shows how often they are actually used. Analysts increasingly track payments activity to determine which stablecoin functions as the primary medium for transfers, settlement, and everyday crypto transactions.
In that context, the Mizuho note argued that the stablecoin leader will not necessarily be the one with the largest supply but the one most widely used for transactions. A token that circulates frequently across exchanges, payment networks, and decentralized finance platforms may gain an advantage even if its outstanding supply is smaller.
Stablecoin Competition Is Intensifying
The rivalry between USDC and USDT has defined the stablecoin market for several years. Tether built early dominance by supplying liquidity across crypto exchanges, while USDC focused more heavily on regulated financial infrastructure and partnerships with banks and payment providers.
Circle’s public listing in 2025 placed the company under greater scrutiny from equity investors who track revenue sources tied to stablecoin usage, such as reserve income and payment flows. Rising transaction activity can translate into higher ecosystem demand, even if circulating supply grows more slowly.
At the same time, Tether continues to command the largest share of the global stablecoin market by supply and remains deeply embedded in exchange liquidity, cross-border transfers, and emerging-market payments. The contrast between market capitalization leadership and transaction volume leadership illustrates how the two issuers have built their businesses differently.
Investor Takeaway
Regulation in Washington Still Clouds the Outlook
The stablecoin race is unfolding while lawmakers in Washington continue to debate digital-asset legislation. The digital asset market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act passed the US House of Representatives but has stalled in the Senate.
Disagreements center on several issues, including whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to distribute yield to token holders, ethics concerns tied to tokenized equities, and broader market oversight rules. Those disputes have delayed progress on a comprehensive regulatory framework.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly said Thursday that the chamber will focus first on legislation related to voting requirements. He indicated that the broader market structure bill is unlikely to advance before April.
Until the regulatory direction becomes clearer, stablecoin issuers and investors will continue operating in an environment where market adoption is moving faster than policy. For now, Mizuho’s analysis adds another dimension to the competition: the battle for real transaction usage rather than token supply alone.
