Will Bitcoin Really Hit $100,000 After the 2024 Halving?

According to Nicehash’s countdown, the halving is estimated for April 15 even though a few months ago, the date was estimated as April 28. However, this timing adjustment isn’t the only thing the current halving is expected to emulate; it is anticipated to mirror the previous halvings in its impact on price.

With prior halvings leading to massive Bitcoin bull runs, could this be the time Bitcoin surged to $100,000?

The History of Halvings and Price Impact

All three past halvings have been followed by substantial price increases for Bitcoin. The trend has been consistent with the price being lower a month before the halving then skyrocketing following the event.

The first halving in November 2012 saw the price begin at $12 a month following the halving. In a year’s time, by November 2013, Bitcoin reached a peak of $1,242, a 10,000% increase. Similarly, the second halving in July 2016 led to the orice reaching a new high of $19,785 by December 2017. In the third halving of May 2020, the price went from $8,730 to $69,000 by November 2021.

This trend has been associated with the reduced supply of Bitcoin entering the market as long as demand remains the same or increases. Furthermore, halving events gain a lot of attention, attract new investors, and increase trading volume.

Supply Reduction Could Increase Demand

Bitcoin halvings occur around every 4 years, about every 210,000 blocks since a new block is added to the network roughly every 10 minutes. While there are “difficulty adjustments” to help maintain this, bull markets may cause an acceleration.

Most investors see halving as a major event that potentially skyrockets the Bitcoin price. The reasoning behind this is that since fewer new coins are created, the existing ones increase in value if the demand remains high.

Even though the 2024 halving event will see the miner reward cut in half from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin, an increase in price could make mining more profitable. In turn, this could attract more miners necessitating the use of more powerful computers to keep up with the competition.

This computer power (hash rate) has been rising quickly as mining companies try to get a piece of the pie. Newer, more powerful mining machines are constantly being developed. For example, the latest S21 machines from Antminer are nearly twice as powerful as the previous top model, the S19. Some companies are even dusting off older equipment to squeeze out every bit of mining power they can before the halving hits.

Analyst Predictions are Mixed

Several crypto analysts are weighing in on what the Bitcoin price will be following this halving. One analyst, Rekt Capital, outlined the “5 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving” based on historical pricing data on what to anticipate the market’s performance around the halving. The phases include the pre-halving period, pre-halving rally, pre-halving retrace, reaccumulation, and the final phase during which BTC sees exponential growth and reaches a new all-time high.

https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1757054045594747015?s=20

While the historical pattern may not exactly follow the previous trend, the expectation of a bull market among investors could lead to an increase in capital flows into Bitcoin. Mid-March, BTC surpassed its 2021 all-time high even before the halving which could further pull the price of Bitcoin towards the $100,000 mark, if not higher.

Analyst Peter Brandt supports this idea and predicts a possible price of $150,000 by the end of 2025, although he acknowledges past halving cycles saw faster price increases after the event. However, some analysts believe that the halving has already been factored in the recent bull run hence the halving might not impact the market.

Bitcoin mining experts have expressed optimism about the future of Bitcoin after the halving. According to Andy Fajar Handika, co-founder and CEO of decentralized Bitcoin mining pool Loka Mining, there will be some short-term ups and downs in the BTC price following the halving but the trend of prior halvings will be consistent.

Is $100,000 On the Horizon for BTC?

The upcoming Bitcoin halving event might not be like the others. In the past, new all-time highs came some months after the halving event. This time around, Bitcoin actually got there before the April halving.

The early resurgence has been associated with a mix of factors such as institutional involvement, the current economic climate and more adoption. Furthermore, the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased capital flow into Bitcoin due to their high demand.

Glassnode’s insights reveal that Bitcoin ETF flows have consistently exceeded the supply introduced by miners. Hence, the anticipated supply squeeze from the upcoming halving may not materialize as expected.

According to the report, ETFs are effectively preempting the impact of the halving by cutting down on the available supply through continuous buying activity. This implies that the supply constraint typically associated with halvings may already be in effect.

However, ETFs may not always be bullish, since a shift from inflows to outflows could lead to selling pressure. Notably, the ETF netflows have been negative for four consecutive days, suggesting a potential trend shift.

Due to this, analysts are urging caution saying that while there are speculations that the price will increase, it is not guaranteed

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