EUR or GBP? What positions will be affected by the Brexit vote? Exclusive analysis by Marshall Gittler
FXPRIMUS Head of Investment Research Marshall Gittler takes us through the possible market conditions that could be driven by tomorrow’s referendum on EU membership in Britain
As those taking bets look at a 75% likelihood of Britain remaining in the European Union, Head of Investment Research at FXPRIMUS Marshall Gittler takes an exclusive look with FinanceFeeds today at how the markets may be affected by the British referendum on EU membership that will take place tomorrow.
As Britain preparest to go to the polls, Marshall takes a look at how the British pound is back to the high for the year, and how most of the Brexit risk is now out of the market, however he observes that the polls are less certain and show sides that are evenly matched.
Marshall also looks at how the vote could go either way, and how the market is backing remain, and that if that proves to be the case, the relief rally will be modest.
His observations are that British stocks are currently outperforming those of listed companies in mainland Europe, therefore the market cannot expect huge surge of money into UK, whereas if Britain votes to leave the EU, chaos and it will come as a surprise and the EUR and GBP would plunge. Marshall considers the CHF and JPY to be safehaven currencies under such circumstances, and commodities such as gold may get a boost.
Marshall looks at the uncertainty and how long it will take to establish a new framework for UK trade post referendum, and how the market doesn’t welcome uncertainty.