AxiTrader Economic Calander – Guest Analysis

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AxiTrader Chief Market Strategist Stephen Innes looks at the week ahead in the markets

european markets

By Stephen Innes, Global Chief Market Strategist, AxiTrader

Week Ahead

There’s another full week ahead on the market calendar, even as investors will continue to focus on public health metrics – especially in light of higher case counts in some populated areas of the US. Central banks will feature prominently on the calendar list, with decisions from the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and several others, while Fed Chair Powell will also be testifying before Congress. 

Elsewhere, European politics will be in focus with a European Council meeting taking place on Friday where the recovery fund will be discussed, as well as talks between UK Prime Minister Johnson and EU leaders on Monday about their future relationship. 

There’s also an increasing number of high frequency and hard data releases for May, offering more timely insight into how different economies are responding to lockdowns being eased, which could very well be actionable trade events. 

The Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy decision on Tuesday, where the majority of economists believe the BoJ will maintain their current policy stance and don’t expect any further action this year unless they significantly alter their economic forecasts in next month’s quarterly Outlook Report.

The Bank of England is expected to increase QE by further £125bn, with additional QE likely over the year. In light of the abysmal UK GDP – a contraction of 20.4% in April, following a 5.8% decline in March – anything short of that low bar target could be perceived negatively by the street.

Fed Chair Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday where he’ll deliver testimony as part of the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report that’s submitted to Congress. 

It’ll be interesting to hear what he has to say on the outlook and how he sees the recovery progressing, given his remarks in the most recent press conference that “we’re not thinking about raising rates” and if he walks back his sombre outlook a touch. Frankly, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t stick to the script as, after the FOMC, the Fed found themselves boxed in and will probably continue to walk the middle ground as they emerge from firefighting mode to creating actionable longer-term models. 

On the data front, Monday will see the release of Chinese data for May on retail sales and industrial production. The US will also be releasing more hard data for May, including retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization figures coming out on Tuesday, before housing starts and May’s building permits are released on Wednesday. In the UK, next week sees inflation, retail sales and unemployment data released. 

Asia Week Ahead 

The actionable trading spotlight falls in China news week where it’s expected China’s high-frequency data will pick up further in May amid a robust recovery in domestic demand. This data print on Monday could be crucial for risk sentiment. 

  • China’s high-frequency data to pick up further in May, amid a robust recovery in domestic demand.
  • IP growth is likely to accelerate to 5% in May from 3.9% in April. Fixed asset investments are expected to decline 6.5%yoy in May, a modest improvement from the 10.3% contraction in April.
  • Retail sales are likely to move sideways vs. a 7.5% contraction in the same period.

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