WTI crude oil has broken out of the daily Triangle pattern that had contained price action since the start of March, and the follow-through has been decisive. With the key 85.00 support level now behind us, the technical structure points to 75.00 as the next stop for the active impulse wave. This article is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
- WTI crude oil has broken the daily Triangle pattern that formed at the start of March.
- The break accelerated the active downward impulse wave (C), which also took out the 85.00 support level.
- Price also sliced through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upward impulse from the start of the year.
- Next technical target sits at 75.00 — the projected completion zone for wave (C).
- Key risk: an OPEC+ supply surprise or a sharp geopolitical escalation could invalidate the bearish setup.
The Triangle Break: Why It Matters
Triangles are consolidation patterns, and consolidations exist because the market has not decided which way to resolve. Once a Triangle breaks, the accumulated energy tends to release in the direction of the breakout — and in this case, the break was lower. Triangles that form after a leg down and then break down again typically function as continuation patterns, not reversals, which is consistent with what we are seeing on the daily WTI chart.
The break did not stop at the Triangle boundary. Price continued through the 85.00 level that had previously capped wave (A) back in March, flipping what had been a reaction high into a reclaimed zone on the way down. That level also coincided with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upward impulse wave c from the start of the year — a confluence that, once lost, removes the last structural defence between price and significantly lower territory.
The Elliott Wave Read
The current leg lower is the active short-term impulse wave 1, which began at the start of April and sits nested inside the larger medium-term impulse wave (C). In Elliott Wave terms, the combination of a fresh wave 1 driving a broader wave (C) is one of the more aggressive setups on the chart — it is where multiple degrees of trend align to the downside.
That structural read matters because it tells traders not to expect the move to exhaust itself at the first bounce. Wave (C) is a terminal move within a corrective sequence, and it typically completes at a specific technical level rather than petering out in the middle of nowhere. That target, based on the structure so far, is 75.00.
Where Price Goes Next
With the Triangle broken and 85.00 gone, the path to 75.00 is technically open. The 75.00 level is both a psychological round number and the projected completion zone for the active wave (C), which is why it is the logical magnet for price on this timeframe. Expect liquidity to cluster around it as the move approaches, which may produce choppy price action rather than a clean tag.
If 75.00 holds, the completion of wave (C) would set the stage for a corrective bounce — not necessarily a full reversal, but enough of a reaction to shake out late-entry shorts. If 75.00 gives way cleanly, the technical structure would need to be reassessed entirely, because it would suggest the move is something larger than a completing wave (C).
What Could Derail the Bearish Case
Technical setups do not exist in a vacuum, and WTI is one of the most headline-sensitive instruments on the board. A few specific developments would force a rethink of the bearish thesis.
An OPEC+ announcement of unexpected production cuts is the most obvious risk — the cartel has a track record of intervening when prices approach levels it deems uncomfortable. A geopolitical escalation involving major oil-producing regions could inject a risk premium into crude that overrides technicals in the short term. On the demand side, any signal of a sharp rebound in global growth expectations — particularly from China — would tighten the fundamental backdrop and push price in the opposite direction.
Traders should also respect the possibility that wave 1 exhausts before reaching 75.00, giving way to a wave 2 correction that retraces a meaningful portion of the current leg before the next impulse down. Chasing strength in the middle of a potential corrective bounce is how clean technical setups turn into poor entries.
FAQ
Why did WTI crude oil break the Triangle?
The break was driven by continuation of the broader impulse wave (C) that had been pressuring price lower since late March. Triangles that form within a larger downtrend tend to resolve in the direction of that trend, and that is what played out here. The subsequent loss of the 85.00 level and the 50% Fibonacci retracement confirmed the break as structural rather than noise.
What is the next support level for WTI?
The next notable support sits at 75.00. It is both a psychological round number and the projected completion level for the active wave (C), which makes it the most probable near-term target on the daily chart.
Could WTI fall below 75.00?
A clean break of 75.00 would suggest the current move is larger in degree than a completing wave (C), which would require a full reassessment of the chart structure. It is possible, but the technical read currently favours 75.00 as a completion point rather than a waypoint.
What would invalidate the bearish WTI view?
A daily close back above 85.00 would neutralise the breakdown and put the Triangle break in doubt. An OPEC+ supply surprise, a geopolitical shock affecting major producers, or a sharp improvement in global demand expectations could all shift the fundamental backdrop enough to override the current technical setup.
